Each one in plain English, with the numbers worked through for a shareholder.
23 June 2026resource reserve update▲ GoodMajor
Bedout prospective resources raised 92% to 6,256 MMboe gross (unrisked Pmean) across 130 prospects, from 3,263 MMboe in June 2025; net to Carnarvon 1,021 MMboe. Ara (CVN 10%, 191 MMboe, 37% chance of success) is the likely first well. These are undrilled prospects, not discoveries.
Bedout seismic reprocessing across 15,240 km² is complete, helping pick the 2026 exploration target. The joint venture's drilling environmental plan is well advanced, with drilling expected to start in Q3 2026. This firms up the earlier 2026 target.
New 3D seismic interpretation high-grades five Bedout prospects (Ara, Wallace, Wendolene, Starbuck, Pavo South) holding 623 MMboe gross unrisked Pmean prospective resource. Two or three wells are planned on a semi-submersible rig; timing depends on approvals, including new consultation on environment plans.
Carnarvon says its top 20 Bedout prospects total over 1.5 billion boe gross (Pmean), from 100+ prospects. Pavo South rises to 66 MMbbl gross at 60% chance, from 55 MMbbl at 51%. Pavo, Ara and Starbuck are being high-graded for drilling. These are unproven prospective estimates.
Carnarvon booked Pavo resources: 43 MMbbl gross 2C contingent (13 MMbbl net at 30%) for Pavo North, plus 55 MMbbl gross Pmean prospective for Pavo South (16 MMbbl net, 51% chance). Adds to its 32 MMbbl net Dorado oil 2C.
Apus-1 reached about 2,900m and found excellent reservoirs but no commercial hydrocarbon pool, though hydrocarbons were observed. A dry-hole outcome for the 23%-chance prospect. Pavo-1 and Dorado remain the Bedout successes, and no further Apus announcement is planned.
Apus-1 was drilling at about 1,470m, with 13 5/8" casing set at around 932m. No hydrocarbons were expected in this section, and no new result was reported. Target reservoirs are expected near the planned 2,900m total depth.
Drilling began at Apus-1, 27km southwest of Pavo-1, targeting a gross mean 235 MMbbl of liquids and 408 bcf of gas at a 23% chance of success. Carnarvon's average interest is about 25%.
The Noble Tom Prosser rig has moved to the Apus-1 site, with drilling due within a week and about a month expected. Apus targets 235 MMbbl liquids plus 408 bcf gas gross mean at 23% chance of success; Carnarvon's average interest is about 25%.
Pavo-1 reached final depth of about 4,235m, drilling about 680m of previously undrilled Early Triassic and Upper Permian rocks below the Archer Formation. No commercial hydrocarbons were found there, as expected. The well will be plugged after logging and the rig moves to Apus-1.
Operator Santos confirms the Pavo-1 discovery: 43 MMbbl gross 2C contingent resource for the northern culmination (Carnarvon 30%), plus 40 MMbbl gross prospective in the southern culmination at 60% chance. Santos cites tie-back breakeven below US$10/bbl. Adds numbers to the Carnarvon announcement.
Pavo-1 (Carnarvon 30%) made a material oil discovery in the Caley Member: 46m net pay in a 60m gross column, light ~52° API oil. Pavo is 46km from Dorado and expected to tie back to it. Resolves the pending wireline question; the well continues deeper to about 4,200m.
Pavo-1 operations resumed after cyclone shutdown at about 3,282m. The well will be deepened to about 3,600m, then extensive wireline logging will be run over the Caley and Crespin reservoirs to confirm the hydrocarbon shows at 2,944-3,001m. No new result.
Pavo-1 reached about 3,282m and found multiple porous sands in the Caley to Crespin, similar to Dorado. Elevated gas and resistivity at 2,944-3,001m indicate hydrocarbons. Wireline logs are needed for confirmation; cyclone precautions are delaying them.
Pavo-1 has drilled to about 2,875m and the 9 5/8-inch liner is being set. Next is the 8.5-inch section through the expected reservoir. Routine progress, no new result.
Pavo-1 has drilled the 17.5-inch hole to about 1,009m and set casing; the rig is preparing the next 12.25-inch section to about 3,000m. No hydrocarbons are expected in this section. Routine progress.
The rig is at the Pavo-1 site and about to start drilling the surface hole. Target remains 82 MMbbl liquids gross mean, 34% chance of success, 30% Carnarvon interest. No hydrocarbons expected in the upper sections.
Noble Tom Prosser rig is moving to Pavo-1, with drilling due within a week. Target is 82 MMbbl liquids (gross mean) plus 108 Bcf gas, 34% chance of success; Carnarvon holds 30%. Apus-1 follows about 20km southwest.
Wireline logging found Buffalo-10's oil column residual and uncommercial, so the well will be left safe and the rig demobilised. The CEO calls it disappointing. This ends the Buffalo-10 hope of a 31 MMbbl attic oil target; Carnarvon's focus shifts to Pavo-1 and Apus-1.
Buffalo-10 hit the Elang reservoir about 80m deeper than predicted, outside the pre-drill range, with a roughly 12m gross oil column indicated while drilling. Carnarvon says seismic processing has not resolved the velocity distortion in the field. Wireline logs are still to confirm.
Buffalo-10 has drilled the 12.25-inch hole to about 2,707m, with geological markers within the pre-drill range. The Elang reservoir is expected in the final 8.5-inch section to about 3,500m, with logs before deciding on suspension.
Buffalo-10 conductor cemented and 17.5-inch hole drilled to about 804m. Next is casing, then the 12.25-inch section to about 2,800m. No hydrocarbons are expected in this section; routine progress.
Buffalo-10 drilling has commenced; the top hole is drilled to about 120m after a slight tropical weather delay. This is the first Carnarvon-operated well in the Timor Sea redevelopment, with results due in coming weeks. No hydrocarbons are expected in the upper sections.
Valaris JU-107 is en route to Buffalo-10, with drilling expected within a week and about 35 days to complete. The well targets the attic oil (contingent 2C 31.1 MMbbl, range 15.3-47.8) and would be suspended for later production if successful.
Santos's Noble Tom Prosser rig should reach Pavo-1 in mid-late January 2022; the well takes about two months, then Apus-1 follows (just over a month). Pavo-1 mean 82 MMbbl liquids; Apus-1 235 MMbbl, both gross prospective and unchanged.
Valaris JU-107 rig handover to Carnarvon slips again, now expected late December, as the rig's current operator finishes its final operation. Carnarvon says the delay is not related to rig performance or its own preparation. Mid case 31 MMbbl unchanged.
Buffalo-10 is ready to receive the Valaris JU-107 rig, with handover expected within two weeks and the last regulatory approvals due before arrival. Spud slips again from early November. Results are now expected early in the new year; 31 MMbbl mid case unchanged.
Buffalo-10 spud now expected early November, later than the late-October target, with the rig release from its prior job the stated dependency. Mid-case 31 MMbbl (gross, 2C) is unchanged; the well is to be kept as the first production well if successful, and the target should be reached in about 35 days.
Buffalo-10 is planned for Q4 2021. Advance Energy has paid the US$20m, so drilling costs Carnarvon nothing unless the well exceeds that. Long lead equipment orders are placed and the rig tender is nearing completion.
The Buffalo farm-out to Advance Energy is complete: it now holds 50% and has met its funding requirement, so Carnarvon is free carried on Buffalo-10 up to US$20m. The well is now said to be on track for late 2021, subject to securing a rig.