Past year: ▲ 4%(8.60c – 13.0c AUD)
Each one in plain English, with the numbers worked through for a shareholder.
31 Aug 2012annual report▼ Bad
FY12 revenue fell 44% to A$30.4m from A$54.75m, with a net loss of A$2.5m against a A$2.2m profit the prior year. Includes a A$3.4m write-off of Rangkas seismic costs, suggesting that Indonesian block is not progressing (inference). Net tangible assets 1.5 cents per share.
15 Aug 2012drilling result● Neutral
First WBEXT sandstone development well, WBEXT-5C, flows at about 120 bopd gross, in line with expectation. NS-8B, meant to follow the NS-4A sandstone find, hit low-permeability clay and was shut in; WBEXT-4A volcanic well collapsed and was abandoned. Meetings with the land office began 14 Aug on ~500 bopd shut in.
8 Aug 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Third-party interview with MD Adrian Cook explaining the June quarter production fall as caused by the shut-in wells. He targets a Phoenix farm-out deal by end of September 2012, including timing for the first well. No new results.
30 July 2012quarterly activities report▼ Bad
June quarter net production fell to 57,806 bbls from 71,767, revenue A$5.5m, cash A$7.6m, no debt. About 465 bopd gross remains shut in by the land-reform office, with its review expected late Aug/early Sep; WBEXT sandstone drilling began 25 July after approval.
18 July 2012joint venture update▲ GoodMajor
New Thai operator is ECO Environmental Investments, a Towngas subsidiary. WBEXT environmental approval is received, ending the long delay, and drilling has resumed at NS-4A and WBEXT volcanic appraisal, with sandstone development to follow.
27 June 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Asia Oil Week presentation by the MD restating known goals: Phoenix farm-out in Q3 2012, Thai sandstone drilling shortly, Zeester 3D completion and partners sought for other Thai blocks. About 693m shares, market cap around A$80m. Nothing new.
18 June 2012asset acquisition disposition● Neutral
Pan Orient completes the sale of its 60% interest in the Thai concessions on 15 June for US$170m plus US$9m adjustments. Carnarvon keeps its 40% and will update after meeting the new operator.
6 June 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Interview in which the MD explains the Pan Orient sale implies A$0.16/share for Thailand, about A$119m at completion. He says no impediments are foreseen and the buyer is an unnamed large Asian integrated energy company.
29 May 2012production update▼ Bad
June quarter Thai production to date averages about 665 bopd net. About 465 bopd gross is shut in awaiting land-use approval until around mid-August; the NS-4A sandstone find is a new discovery. Sandstone approval still pending, and drilling rig is demobilised until June.
24 May 2012asset acquisition disposition▲ GoodMajor
Pan Orient agreed to sell its 60% of the Thai concessions for US$170m plus about US$8m of working capital adjustments. Carnarvon said this implied US$113m (A$0.16 per share) for its 40%, 35% above GCA's US$84m proved value, with operations handed over within six months.
21 May 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Third-party interview with MD Adrian Cook restating the strategy: Thai production and reserves underpin value, Phoenix farm-out targeted Q3 2012, drilling hoped for late 2013. Market cap about A$75m. Nothing new.
3 May 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Corporate presentation restating known points: 1P reserves of 3.8 MMbbl valued at A$0.12/share, Phoenix farm-out targeted Q3 2012 with Carnarvon expecting to keep about 25%, and contingent resources of 1-4 Tcf. No new information.
19 Apr 2012admin correction● Neutral
Carnarvon adds the Competent Persons Statement (COO Philip Huizenga) that was left out of the March 2012 quarterly report. Administrative only.
18 Apr 2012quarterly activities report▼ Bad
March quarter production fell to 71,767 bbls (789 bopd net) from 87,856, revenue A$7.41m, cash A$10.0m, no debt. No new wells came online while awaiting WBEXT environmental approval; Phoenix data room closed late March, farm-out targeted for Q3 2012.
22 Mar 2012resource reserve update▼ BadMajor
Independent GCA certifies Thai reserves at 31 Dec 2011: proved 3.8 MMbbl (down from 4.7) worth US$84m, A$0.12/share; proved plus probable 12.1 MMbbl (down from 20.4) worth US$222m, A$0.32/share. Confirms the expected downgrade, citing weak 2011 well results and 400,000+ bbl produced.
2 Mar 2012joint venture update▲ Good
Phoenix farm-out is drawing strong interest, so the data room is extended two weeks. A farm-in agreement is targeted early in Q3 2012. Woodside plans nearby exploration in 2012-13. The 4,289 km2 Zeester 3D data is due in Q3 2012.
2 Mar 2012other▼ Bad
S&P Indices' March 2012 rebalance lists Carnarvon among stocks removed from the S&P/ASX 300 and All Ordinaries, effective after close on 16 March 2012. Index change, not company news; the extracted list of removals is ambiguous across indices.
28 Feb 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Presentation accompanying the half-year result: A$2.5m loss, revenue A$17.3m at A$96.22/bbl, cash A$10.2m, no debt. Shares are at A$0.16 (market cap A$111m). It repeats the results and 2012 priorities with nothing new.
28 Feb 2012half year report▼ BadMajor
Half-year to December 2011 shows a A$2.5m loss against a A$4.8m profit a year earlier. Revenue fell 52% to A$17.3m. The loss includes a A$3.4m exploration write-off and a A$5.5m deferred tax expense. No dividend, no debt.
27 Feb 2012price query● Neutral
ASX queried a rise in the share price from 11 cents to an intraday 16.5 cents. Carnarvon replied that it knows of no unannounced information or other explanation and complies with listing rules.
22 Feb 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Hartleys presentation by MD Adrian Cook restating known points: A$10.2m cash, no debt, Phoenix farm-out, 2012 sandstone program and a 2013 target for Phoenix drilling. Shares are at A$0.11, market cap A$76m. No material new information.
25 Jan 2012quarterly activities report● Neutral
December quarter production was 87,856 bbls (down 4%), revenue A$8.73m, cash A$10.3m, no debt. Shares closed at A$0.097. GCA reserve results are now expected early in the June 2012 quarter, with negative revisions anticipated. The Phoenix farm-out is expected to conclude around June-July 2012.
10 Jan 2012production update● NeutralMajor
December quarter Thai production averaged 954 bopd net; current rate is about 1,140-1,150 bopd net. Inflow control devices are now in four wells, all producing above prior rates. Sandstone approval slips to February 2012. The 2012 plan is 31 wells, about A$18m net, funded from operating cash flow.
15 Dec 2011joint venture update▲ Good
The Phoenix farm-out has begun on schedule, with a data room opening 6 February 2012 for two wells at Phoenix South and Roc (about 5.5 Tcf each, high-side). New 4,247 km2 multi-client 3D seismic started 13 December; Carnarvon has not committed to license it.
25 Nov 2011production update● NeutralMajor
Thai joint venture says an inflow control device on the Bo Rang pilot well lifted output over 300%, from 50 to over 200 bopd gross. Production is now about 1,000 bopd net. L33-2A deep volcanic test recovered only water. Sandstone approval is due 30 Dec.
25 Nov 2011director officer appointment● Neutral
Graeme Smith of DWCorporate is appointed Company Secretary from 21 November 2011, replacing Robert Anderson, who resigned. Administrative change.
24 Nov 2011resource reserve update▲ GoodMajor
Phoenix operator Finder's update puts Phoenix South and Roc prospects at about 5.5 Tcf each (high-side, not assessed by Carnarvon), alongside 870 Bcf for the existing Phoenix gas. Joint farm-out is planned to start Q1 2012, with drilling possibly 2012/13.
18 Nov 2011agm notice● Neutral
AGM presentation by MD Adrian Cook repeating FY11 results, the WBEXT decline story, a 10-15 well sandstone program from Q1 2012, and L20/50 needing 3D seismic. Nothing materially new.
18 Nov 2011agm notice● Neutral
AGM chairman's address: a fourth consecutive profitable year, but production has fallen sharply since the WBEXT wells hit technical problems and has not recovered. The focus is on steadier sandstone output and new technology, with benefits expected early in the new year.
24 Oct 2011investor presentation● Neutral
Shareholder presentation by management restating FY11 results (A$55m revenue, A$13m earnings before A$11m write-offs), A$15m cash, no debt, a planned 10-15 well WBEXT sandstone program from Q1 2012, and Phoenix as a value driver. Nothing new.
