Past year: ▲ 4%(8.60c – 13.0c AUD)
Each one in plain English, with the numbers worked through for a shareholder.
7 Dec 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Shareholder letter reaffirms the 3,000 bopd gross target by 31 December: 500 from ALRO wells, 800 from the WBEXT sandstone block, and 300 from igneous wells. All sandstone wells are drilled at about US$1m gross each; thinner sandstone layers needed more testing; WBEXT-1H zones tested above 200 bopd. ALRO timing is outside the company's control.
6 Dec 2012drilling progress report● Neutral
The NSE-B2ST1 infill well, after the earlier stuck-assembly delay, sidetracked successfully and reached 893 m, where drilling fluid losses began. The company calls losses a positive sign of fractures; target depth is 1,095 m, with production 5-7 days after completion if successful.
29 Nov 2012drilling progress report▼ Bad
NSE-B2ST1 hit trouble: the drilling assembly broke off while milling casing and could not be recovered. Operator continues milling before sidetracking, so the infill well is delayed with no result yet.
23 Nov 2012drilling progress report▲ Good
The seventh and final 2012 well in the WBEXT 1B sandstone program (WBEXT-1H) was completed on time and budget. Testing and water injection start in December, targeting about 800 bopd gross from this block, with five more wells contingent for early 2013.
22 Nov 2012drilling spud● Neutral
Drilling began at NSE-B2ST1, an infill well in the Na Sanun East field (40% Carnarvon), targeting about 106 m of volcanic pay to 900 m depth over ~12 days. The field has produced ~5 million barrels and holds ~2 million barrels gross 2P.
22 Nov 2012director officer appointment● Neutral
Financial Controller Thomson Naude replaces Graeme Smith as Company Secretary, as the company brings the role in-house. Administrative change, not a board change.
16 Nov 2012investor presentation● Neutral
AGM presentation restates strategy and the 3,000 bopd by December target (1,400 base, 500 ALRO, 800 sandstone, 100 workovers, 200 igneous). Notes 12 MMbbl net 2P and first Phoenix well expected late 2013, subject to rig availability and approvals. Mostly known facts.
9 Nov 2012production update▲ Good
Thailand update says the 3,000 bopd gross target by year-end is on track: 1,400 base, 800 from WBEXT sandstone, 500 from ALRO shut-ins returning, 300 other. ALRO final approval meetings are set for late November; wellhead pressures suggest shut-ins can resume at or above prior rates.
30 Oct 2012capital raising announcement▲ Good
The Share Purchase Plan was oversubscribed beyond A$5 million and will be scaled back pro-rata, so no shortfall placement is needed. Shares are allotted 2 November and trade from 6 November. Completes the raising; the SPP shortfall resolution is withdrawn from the 16 November AGM.
29 Oct 2012farm in farm out agreement● NeutralMajor
Carnarvon (55%) and Sun farm out 100% of the L20/50 Thai block to Siam Moeco (Mitsui subsidiary), ending its search for partners. Carnarvon's share is 55% of US$8.5m on commercial production plus 55% of a 2% royalty capped at US$10m. Subject to government approval.
23 Oct 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Interview with MD Adrian Cook explaining the Phoenix farm-out: Apache chosen as experienced operator, JX Nippon for its Carnarvon Basin presence. He cites mean recoverable gas of one to two Tcf per prospect, with well timing dependent on Apache's rig schedule. No new facts.
18 Oct 2012farm in farm out agreement▲ GoodMajor
Phoenix farm-out signed: Apache takes 40% and operates, JX Nippon 20%, in WA-435-P and WA-437-P. Carnarvon keeps 20% (from 50%) and is carried below an agreed cap on Phoenix South (firm) and Roc (contingent), plus a past-cost payment. Resolves the slipped deal.
15 Oct 2012annual report● Neutral
2012 Annual Report repeats FY12 results already reported: revenue A$30.4m, loss after tax A$2.5m, including the A$3.4m Rangkas write-off. Chairman says sandstone program is bearing fruit and the Phoenix farm-out is close. Permit schedule confirms existing interests; no options on issue.
12 Oct 2012capital raising announcement● Neutral
Share Purchase Plan offer documents, announced 4 October, have been sent to eligible shareholders. Eligible holders can buy shares without brokerage; the cover letter says up to A$5 million is sought, with scale-back if oversubscribed. Administrative step in the existing raising.
4 Oct 2012capital raising announcement● NeutralMajor
Carnarvon said it would raise up to about A$15.0m by placing up to 182.9m shares at A$0.082. A$8.4m is unconditional and A$6.6m needs shareholder approval at a meeting expected on 16 November. A Share Purchase Plan capped at A$5m at the same price will follow, with proceeds funding mainly Thai drilling.
What it means for a shareholder
183m new shares at A$0.082 to raise about A$15.0m. That's 21% dilution: every existing holder's slice gets 21% smaller. If you held A$1,000 of shares (12,195 at the issue price), your slice goes from 0.00176% to 0.00139% of the company. To keep it you'd need 3,211 more shares - about A$263 at the issue price.
Create a free account to see this worked out for your own holding.
4 Oct 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Presentation supporting the A$15.0m placement at A$0.082: A$8.4m unconditional, A$6.6m conditional on shareholder approval, plus a A$5m share purchase plan. About A$12m is earmarked for Thai drilling and technical work and A$3m for costs and working capital. Directors intend to bid.
24 Sept 2012investor presentation● Neutral
September corporate update restates strategy: plan to double Thai production by 31 Dec 2012 is deliverable, with current output about 550 bopd net. Phoenix farm-out documentation now expected before end of 2012, slipping from the end-September target. Cash A$7.1m, market cap A$73m.
11 Sept 2012director officer appointment▲ Good
Carnarvon adds geologist Dr Stephen Molyneux and geophysicist Andrew Padman to its technical team. They will work on Thai production plans with Towngas, North West Shelf technical work and new ventures. Staff additions, not board changes.
4 Sept 2012investor presentation● Neutral
COO Philip Huizenga's Good Oil Conference talk on Thailand, stressing the new operator Towngas's potential to improve the fields. Restates 2P reserves of 12 MMbbl net and cash of about A$7m; notes a new 5-year Thai exploration period from July 2012. Largely known facts.
31 Aug 2012joint venture update▲ Good
Phoenix farm-out talks with an unnamed major are aiming to finalise an agreement around end of September 2012, subject to board and government approvals. A new oil prospect updip of Phoenix-1 oil shows is mapped; Zeester 3D (3,854 km2) data due end of 2012.
31 Aug 2012annual report▼ Bad
FY12 revenue fell 44% to A$30.4m from A$54.75m, with a net loss of A$2.5m against a A$2.2m profit the prior year. Includes a A$3.4m write-off of Rangkas seismic costs, suggesting that Indonesian block is not progressing (inference). Net tangible assets 1.5 cents per share.
15 Aug 2012drilling result● Neutral
First WBEXT sandstone development well, WBEXT-5C, flows at about 120 bopd gross, in line with expectation. NS-8B, meant to follow the NS-4A sandstone find, hit low-permeability clay and was shut in; WBEXT-4A volcanic well collapsed and was abandoned. Meetings with the land office began 14 Aug on ~500 bopd shut in.
8 Aug 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Third-party interview with MD Adrian Cook explaining the June quarter production fall as caused by the shut-in wells. He targets a Phoenix farm-out deal by end of September 2012, including timing for the first well. No new results.
18 July 2012joint venture update▲ GoodMajor
New Thai operator is ECO Environmental Investments, a Towngas subsidiary. WBEXT environmental approval is received, ending the long delay, and drilling has resumed at NS-4A and WBEXT volcanic appraisal, with sandstone development to follow.
27 June 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Asia Oil Week presentation by the MD restating known goals: Phoenix farm-out in Q3 2012, Thai sandstone drilling shortly, Zeester 3D completion and partners sought for other Thai blocks. About 693m shares, market cap around A$80m. Nothing new.
18 June 2012asset acquisition disposition● Neutral
Pan Orient completes the sale of its 60% interest in the Thai concessions on 15 June for US$170m plus US$9m adjustments. Carnarvon keeps its 40% and will update after meeting the new operator.
6 June 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Interview in which the MD explains the Pan Orient sale implies A$0.16/share for Thailand, about A$119m at completion. He says no impediments are foreseen and the buyer is an unnamed large Asian integrated energy company.
29 May 2012production update▼ Bad
June quarter Thai production to date averages about 665 bopd net. About 465 bopd gross is shut in awaiting land-use approval until around mid-August; the NS-4A sandstone find is a new discovery. Sandstone approval still pending, and drilling rig is demobilised until June.
24 May 2012asset acquisition disposition▲ GoodMajor
Pan Orient agreed to sell its 60% of the Thai concessions for US$170m plus about US$8m of working capital adjustments. Carnarvon said this implied US$113m (A$0.16 per share) for its 40%, 35% above GCA's US$84m proved value, with operations handed over within six months.
21 May 2012investor presentation● Neutral
Third-party interview with MD Adrian Cook restating the strategy: Thai production and reserves underpin value, Phoenix farm-out targeted Q3 2012, drilling hoped for late 2013. Market cap about A$75m. Nothing new.
